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MCX Crude Oil Technical Report

MCX CRUDE OIL Technical Outlook:

dt : 21/11/2018

MCX Crude Oil Futures Technical Chart has taken the formation of “Right angled Ascending broadening wedge” pattern in daily time frame. Previously few sessions ended up bearish in trend after few consolidations inside the channel. As per the technical aspects based on the current price action, the market is expected to continue on bearish trend. The continuation of the trend will be conformed once the prices breaks below a key support holding at 3780. The  negative rally could be testing all the way up to 3700- 3600 levels in the upcoming sessions.

An alternative scenario indicates that if the key support zone holds strong then the market might have a chance to retest the same and revise the trend to bullish once again. such reversal could possibly test up to 3900 – 3960 and furthermore levels. key resistance holds at 3960.

For More Info Check Our Live MCX Crude Oil Inventory Calls.


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Oil prices slip as analysts warn of correction after 13 percent gain in the past month

By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Oil costs gave away earlier gains on Wednesday as analysts warned of a downward correction once costs have gained quite thirteen % over the past month.

Despite the decline, overall oil markets remained well supported on the rear of adjustment offer and robust world demand. The tighter fundamentals raised each crude futures benchmarks regarding thirteen % higher than levels in early December, helped by production curbs by world organization and Russia, in addition as by healthy demand growth.

Brent crude futures (LCOc1) were at $69.07 a barrel at 0441 UT, down from a high of $69.37 earlier within the day and eighteen cents below their last shut.

Brent on weekday rose to $70.37 a barrel, its highest since December 2014, that was the start of a three-year oil worth slump.

U.S. West Lone-Star State Intermediate (WTI) crude futures (CLc1) were at $63.68 a barrel, down five cents from their last settlement. WTI rose to $64.89 on Tues, additionally the best since December 2014.

Norbert Ruecker, head of artifact analysis at Swiss bank Julius Baer, same a worth “correction ought to occur… (as) hedge fund expectations for additional inflation have reached excessive levels.”

He same this was particularly the case as political risk factors that have helped boost brent goose, as well as tensions in Qatar, and therefore the Kurdish region of Asian nation and in Islamic Republic of Iran have to this point not caused vital offer disruptions.

Money managers have raised the bullish positions in WTI and Brent crude futures and options to a record, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Intercontinental Exchange.

Wang Tao, Thomson Reuters commodity analyst, said Brent may fall to around $68.50 a barrel due to technical chart indicators.

Still, traders and analysts said overall oil markets were well supported, and steep price falls unlikely.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia have continued to withhold production since January last year and the cuts are set to last through 2018.

This restraint has coincided with healthy oil demand.

“Oil remains underpinned by the solid economy with strong oil demand tightening global oil inventories. The past years’ surplus supplies are slowly disappearing,” Ruecker said.

One factor that in 2017 prevented crude prices from rising further was a surge in U.S. production.

Despite a recent drop due to extreme cold, U.S. crude output is expected to soon break through 10 million barrels per day (bpd), challenging top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia.

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Iran unrest helps push crude oil to new multiyear highs

U.S. fossil oil rises to a replacement two-and-a-half-year high, +0.8% to $60.89/bbl, supported by anti-government protests in Iran; goose crude +0.7% to $67.08/bbl.
More than twenty individuals are killed in Iran since the turmoil stony-broke out last week, though crude and atmospheric phenomenon exports stay unaffected.
“With politics risk driving the market, the appetency of mercantilism earlier than a possible spike is restricted,” says Ole Hansen, head of goods strategy at Saxo Bank.
Now read: Energy Fourth Quarter Review and therefore the Outlook For Q1 2018

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Oil drops on rising U.S. crude inventories, OPEC seen to extend cuts

By Henning Gloystein
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Oil costs alleviated on Th as U.S. fuel inventories rose despite efforts by oil cartel to chop production and tighten the market.
U.S. West Lone-Star State Intermediate (WTI) crude futures (CLc1) were commerce at $51.08 per barrel at 0112 UT1, down twenty two cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last settlement.
Brent crude futures (LCOc1), the international benchmark for oil costs, were at $56.62, down thirty two cents, or 0.6 percent, from the previous shut.
Starting this year, the Organization of the crude mercantilism Countries (OPEC) and different producers together with Russia in agreement to chop output by one.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to shore costs.
The OPEC-led deal helped elevate oil from the $30-$40 per barrel point late 2016/early 2017. however traders say provides stay ample despite these cuts, thanks in massive half to billowy U.S. production .
As a result, oil cartel is wide expected to increase the cuts on the far side the present expiration date of end-March 2018.
“OPEC does not very have a alternative however to increase cuts unless they are happy to risk sub-$40 per barrel costs once more,” aforesaid David Maher, decision maker for energy at artefact businessperson RCMA cluster in Singapore.
With current OPEC-led provide cuts supporting costs, however rising U.S. production capping crude, Maher aforesaid that markets would doubtless be balanced in 2018 and 2019, with brant vary-bound within the $50 to $60 per barrel range.
“Currently, the most risks to face square measure new Persia sanctions and South American country problems, whereas draw back risks square measure oil cartel cuts not being extended or poor compliance resulting in agreement breaking down, or weaker demand,” Maher aforesaid.
U.S. President Donald Trump is threatening to impose sanctions on Persia but 2 years once they were raised beneath a 2015 deal between Tehran and leading world powers following Iran’s agreement to suspend its controversial nuclear program.
In South American country, associate degree OPEC-member with vast oil reserves, associate degree economic and political crisis is threatening production, and also the government is additionally hostile with the Trump administration.
With rising U.S. production undermining OPEC’s efforts to tighten the market, inventories stay high.
In fact, U.S. crude stocks rose by three.1 million barrels to 468.5 million barrels last week, in line with business cluster the yankee crude Institute (API).
Official U.S. fuel inventory knowledge is because of be printed on Th by the Energy info Administration (EIA).
“Our updated world supply-demand balance so shows peak stock attracts in 3Q17,” nihilist Sachs (NYSE:GS) aforesaid in an exceedingly note to shoppers.
The U.S. bank aforesaid that current oil provide and demand fundamentals meant it expects brant to average $58 per barrel in 2018.

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Crude Oil Prices Bounce Higher After Larger-Than-Expected Drop in U.S. Stockpiles


Oil costs bounced higher on Wed, when information from the U.S. Energy info Administration showed that domestic crude stockpiles born way more than expected last week, marking a second consecutive week of declines.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained twenty one cents, or around zero.4%, to $50.62 a barrel by 10:35 a.m. ET (14:35GMT). costs were at around $50.27 before the discharge of the inventory information.
Meanwhile, brant crude futures, the benchmark for oil costs outside the U.S., rose twelve cents, or about 0.2%, to $56.10 a barrel, when touching a two-week low of $55.39 earlier within the session.
The U.S. Energy info Administration same in its weekly report that oil inventories fell by half dozen.023 million barrels within the week all over quarter day.
Market analysts’ expected a crude-stock decline of around 756,000 barrels, whereas the yankee rock oil Institute on Tues reportable a offer drop of four.0 million barrels.
Supplies at brain doctor, Oklahoma, the key delivery purpose for Nymex crude, accrued by one.5 million barrels last week, the EIA same.
However, the report conjointly showed that fuel inventories accrued by one.644 million barrels, compared to expectations for a one.088 million barrel rise. For distillation inventories together with diesel, the EIA reportable a fall of two.606 million barrels.
Oil costs were harassed in recent sessions as an increase in U.S. drilling and better international organization output place the brakes on a rally that helped costs notch their biggest third-quarter gain in thirteen years.
In May, international organization and non-OPEC members light-emitting diode by Russia in agreement to increase production cuts of one.8 million barrels per day for a amount of 9 months till March 2018 in an exceedingly bid to scale back international oil inventories and support oil costs.
However, costs have force back around five-hitter to this point this month amid concern that U.S. producers can increase output and presumably build up even a lot of quickly to require advantage of recently higher costs.

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Crude Oil Market Under Fresh Buying; Support Sen At 3072

Technically oil market is underneath recent shopping for as market has witnessed gain in open interest by one.89% to settled at 13777 whereas costs up thirty five rupees.

Now MCX oil is obtaining support at 3072 and below same may see a take a look at of 3036 level, and resistance is currently possible to be seen at 3130, a move higher than may see costs testing 3152.
Crude oil on MCX settled up one.14% at 3107 as information showed U.S. provides of oil fell for AN eighth-straight week whereas fears of falling demand for hydrocarbon relieved, following a bigger-than-expected decline in hydrocarbon inventories. costs conjointly got support buoyed by potential output disruptions from a storm approaching the seashore.
Crude oil rose for a second-straight day, as a report from the Energy data Administration (EIA) showed crude and hydrocarbon stockpiles fell last week however gains were capped as U.S. output remained at a biennial high of nine.528m barrels, up 26,000 bpd from last week.
Inventories of U.S. crude fell by roughly three.3m barrels within the week finished Gregorian calendar month eighteen, missing expectations of a draw of concerning three.5m barrels.
It was the eighth-straight week of falling crude inventories. Gains were capped, however, when the EIA’s rumored that total domestic crude production rose twenty six,000 barrels per day (bpd) to nine.528m bpd last week.
Gasoline inventories, one amongst the product that crude is refined into, fell by roughly one.2m barrels, unsupportive expectations of a draw of 643,000 barrels whereas distillation stockpiles rose by twenty eight,000 barrels, beating expectations of an increase of ninety three,000 barrels.
The steeper-than-expected decline in hydrocarbon inventories comes against expectations that hydrocarbon demand is ready to tail off, because the peak of the summer driving season has passed.
Trading Ideas:
–Crudeoil mercantilism vary for the day is 3036-3152.
–Crude oil gained as information showed U.S. provides of oil fell for AN eighth-straight week whereas fears of falling demand for hydrocarbon relieved.
–Prices conjointly got support buoyed by potential output disruptions from a storm approaching the seashore.
–Inventories of U.S. crude fell by roughly three.3m barrels within the week finished Gregorian calendar month eighteen, missing expectations of a draw of concerning three.5m barrels.

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Oil prices turn higher after U.S. inventory data

Oil costs turned higher on Wed, when knowledge from the U.S. Energy data Administration showed that domestic crude provides fell but expected last week, however that fuel stocks declined way more than forecast.

The U.S. West Lone-Star State Intermediate crude Sep contract was at $47.99 a barrel by 10:35 am ET (14 :35GMT), up sixteen cents, or around zero.33%. costs were at around $47.78 before the discharge of the inventory knowledge.
Elsewhere, brant goose oil for Oct delivery on the ICE commodity exchange in London tacked on thirty four cents, or 0.67%, to $52.19 a barrel.
The U.S. Energy data Administration aforementioned in its weekly report that fossil fuel inventories fell by three.33 million barrels within the week complete August eighteen.
Market analysts’ expected a crude-stock decline of around three.45 million barrels, whereas the yankee fossil fuel Institute late Tuesday reportable a supply-drop of three.6 million barrels.
However, the API report additionally showed a gain of one.4 million barrels in fuel stocks, whereas distillation stocks rose by a pair of.0 million barrels.
Supplies at Harvey Cushing, Oklahoma, the key delivery purpose for Nymex crude, declined by 503,000 barrels last week, the EIA aforementioned.
The EIA report additionally showed that fuel inventories born by one.22 million barrels.
For distillation inventories together with diesel, the EIA reportable a rise of twenty eight,000 barrels.
Oil costs were pressured lower earlier within the day, amid current international offer glut considerations.
Libya’s Sharara oil field, the country’s largest, step by step restarted on Tuesday when a termination earlier this month attributable to a pipeline blockade. Output from the field recently reached 280,000 barrels per day.
Elsewhere on Nymex, fuel futures for Sep climbed one.11%, to $1.585 a gallon, whereas Sep oil advanced cents zero.74 % to $1.6047 a gallon.
Natural gas futures for Sep delivery fell zero.44% to $2.894 per million British thermal units.

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MCX Crude Oil Inventory

MCX Crude Oil Inventory

MCX Commodity Inventories plays a crucial role in artefact mercantilism, specially in future mercantilism. It directly provides you an inspiration regarding artefact demand and provide. Inventories of commodites, with low inventories generally resulting in a lot of volatile future costs and increasing the danger of a “stockout” (inventory exhaustion). artefact Calls collects the information for its members from varied sources and gift it for the your convenience. Inventory knowledge of  mcx commodities is employed on the connection between crude oil inventories and artefact futures risk premiums.

Last Release Date  Actual Forecast Previous
August 23, 2017 –3.3M –3.3M

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Oil struggles ahead of official U.S. inventories report

Oil Wed struggled to recoup early losses as trade figures showed an increase in U.S. crude stocks.

Станок-качалка компании PetroChina на нефтяном месторождении в Китае 4 ноября 2007 года. Нефть Brent упала во вторник до нового 5,5-летнего минимума, так как опасения о переизбытке поставок перевесили страхи, вызванные срывом добычи в Ливии. REUTERS/Stringer

U.S. crude was off twelve cents, or 0.27%, at $44.12 at 08:00 ET. brant goose was off one cent. or 0.02% at $46.91.
The yankee crude oil Institute Tues reportable an increase of 851,000 barrels in U.S. crude stocks within the latest week
The Energy info Administration is thanks to unleash official inventories later within the session.
The EIA is forecast to report a fall in U.S. crude stocks of two.585 million barrels.
Supply issues stay in situ as higher U.S. output undermines the impact of production cuts by major producers.
Nigeria and African country, that area unit exempt from the OPEC-led cuts, have conjointly raised output.
OPEC and non-OPEC producers have united to cut back output by one.8 million barrels each day through to March of next year.
The curbs in production have didn’t build the required inroads into high inventories.

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